Severe Weather Threats Continue Across the Plains
Severe weather is expected to remain a concern over the next several days as multiple cold fronts push south and east across the country. While today's threat is relatively limited, the potential for stronger storms increases on Friday and Monday
Today, Thursday: A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms stretches from the southern High Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms are already developing along and south of a cold front extending from the northern Plains into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
As temperatures climb into the 90s and near 100°F across portions of the southern Plains, a moderately unstable atmosphere will develop. This should allow storms to continue through the afternoon and evening. The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts, particularly across parts of north-central Texas and the Mid-South. A few more organized storms could develop farther east, while isolated large hail will also be possible to the west across portions of Colorado, New Mexico, and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
Tomorrow, Friday: The severe weather threat becomes more significant as a developing low-pressure system and cold front move across the northern Plains. A Slight Risk is currently in place from central Nebraska into the Upper Midwest.
A combination of increasing moisture, instability, stronger winds aloft, and favorable wind profiles could support supercells during the late afternoon and evening. These storms could produce damaging winds, large to very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. As the evening progresses, storms are expected to grow upscale into a line where the hail threat should decrease, leading to the main threat being wind, but we can't rule out an isolated tornado or two embedded within the line.
The exact location and coverage of storms remain somewhat uncertain, particularly across eastern South Dakota, Iowa, and central Nebraska. However, where storms can develop, the environment could support some significant severe weather.
By Saturday the threat becomes more isolated, but another round of strong to severe thunderstorms could develop from Kansas into southern Iowa and northern Missouri. A cold front will move southward through the region, interacting with a very moist and unstable air mass.
Wind shear will be weaker than Friday, but still sufficient for some organized storms. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary concerns. There will also be the possibility of additional nighttime thunderstorms developing across Kansas if the front stalls and a stronger low-level jet develops.
Looking farther ahead, the Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted a 15% severe-weather risk area for Day 5, Monday. The outlook includes northern Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, most of central and western Iowa, and part of northwestern Missouri.
Storms could develop along or ahead of an advancing cold front, with damaging winds as the primary threat.
After that we will likely have more chances at getting severe weather, but we are currently just too far out to be able to figure out when and where it would strike.
This Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Break a 60 Year Old Record.
And before we get to discussing the temperatures, I'd like to take a minute to comment on just how quiet the Atlantic has been this year. Because of our "Super" El Niño, the Pacific has been absolutely bustling with activity this year, while the Atlantic has been extremely hostile to organized tropical systems.
It is, however, important that we remain alert. We are at the peak of hurricane season, and though we have been lucky this year with no hurricanes in the Atlantic, that does not mean we will remain completely free of tropical threats. The overall environment may remain hostile, but there can still be brief periods where wind shear decreases enough to allow a tropical system to develop and strengthen.
In fact, due to our lack of tropical storms, the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Atlantic all have relatively untouched waters. This means that any storm that can form in a low-shear environment will have plenty of fuel to work with. And all it takes is one hurricane to cause some major problems.
Now, Let's Talk About the Temperatures
Alright folks, let's talk about the temperatures now. As we touched on earlier, the first cold front that we mentioned in our last forecast is currently sitting across North Texas and into central Oklahoma, and it is bringing thunderstorms to parts of Texas and Oklahoma as well.
As of writing this, much of northern Oklahoma is either in the 70s or low 80s, which is bringing some much-needed relief, especially compared to the triple-digit temperatures many areas experienced yesterday. The cold front will likely continue slowly pushing south over the next few days as it gradually weakens. Temperatures will probably begin warming up considerably in its wake before our next cold front arrives.
By tomorrow, another cold front will push southeast into the northern United States, bringing another round of cooler temperatures to the northern tier. As this front slowly moves south, it will continue cooling temperatures across much of the northern half of the country. By the middle of next week, some places in Kansas could potentially see a day or two with highs only in the 60s.
As we look closer to next weekend, the details do become rather uncertain. However, it appears that the trough driving this cold front will continue pushing east, which should keep the Northeast slightly cooler than average. In some places, temperatures may even feel more like early October than mid-September.
Beyond that point, however, the models really start to disagree. The GFS model pushes the cooler air farther south and keeps it around for longer while the European model shows a different pattern that would keep temperatures at or slightly below average along the East Coast while temperatures remain slightly above average across the central United States.
As we move into next week, these details should become clearer, and I'll be able to give you a closer look into what we can expect for the latter part of the month.
And with that, we have reached the end of another forecast. Thank you for taking the time to read the forecast. I really appreciate it.
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Have a great day, everyone, and I'll see you next time!