About the Weather Brief
Good afternoon folks! Today we are going to be doing something a bit different. Looking at the models this morning, I didn't feel like it was time just yet to do a full weather forecast. However, there are some things that I feel need to be talked about. I believe this is a good chance to introduce "The Weather Brief."
The Weather Brief is a shorter forecast format covering a specific weather threat or developing situation. These "mini forecasts" focus on one or two more immediate threats or updates to currently ongoing threats. They are meant to supplement regular forecasts without requiring a full-length forecast every time there is something worth discussing.
The Tropical Threat
A tropical disturbance is currently developing over the southwestern Gulf, where disorganized showers and thunderstorms are becoming increasingly concentrated. While environmental conditions are only marginally favorable at the moment, gradual development is becoming more likely, with a tropical depression expected to form around the middle of the week. The National Hurricane Center currently gives this system a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours and an 80% chance over the next seven days.
The system is expected to drift generally eastward over the next couple of days before turning northward toward the northern Gulf Coast. Models vary considerably on how strong this system could become, with some keeping it as a relatively weak and disorganized tropical system while others show the potential for it to become a much stronger hurricane. It is far too early to draw any definitive conclusions on the system's eventual strength or track, but those along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the situation as we get closer to the middle of the week.
And with this storm trying to form, I have to mention that we are just four days away from potentially breaking the all-time latest hurricane formation record. The current record was set on October 8, 1905, and has stood for a whopping 121 years. The next few days will be very interesting to watch, as it could ultimately come down to a coin flip as to whether or not we break the record.
Regardless of whether this system becomes a hurricane, if it eventually makes landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast, there will likely be at least some threat of flooding and storm surge. Exactly where those impacts occur will depend heavily on the eventual track and strength of the system, which we simply don't know yet. For now, this is a situation worth keeping a close eye on and I will be providing updates as necessary.